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France 2019: economic outlook, potential growth, structural reforms and long term challenges

- French economic profile, May 2019

02/05/2019

After a strong acceleration in 2017, a combination of global and local factors led to a deceleration of economic activity in France in 2018 which could continue in 2019. France’s potential growth remains weak in part because of a rigid labor market and depressing productivity. The government has implemented reforms (capital taxation, labor market) to address France’s structural economic issues, particularly its weak fiscal position and lack of competitiveness. A reform of the retirement system is also planned but its enforcement will probably not be easy in a tense political context.

Table des matières :

I. French economic climate : key figures and trends

- The recovery fell out of breath.
- A stagnation in purchasing power per household since the onset of the 2008-09 crisis
- The level of inequalities in France
- Outlook for the French economy

II. Structural economic situation : a potential growth a little above 1%

- A relatively low inclusivity on the labour market.
- The less educated are increasingly excluded from employment.
- The slow decrease of unemployment
- France’s attractiveness
- Conclusion: potential growth is expected to stabilize at its lowest in 10 years

III. Long-standing challenges

Challenge 1 : Public finance sustainability

- The sustainability of public finances in France
- The level and quality of public finances
- The level and quality of government expenditures
- The level and quality of government revenues

Challenge n°2 : regain competitiveness

IV. Structural reforms: what has been done? What are the next steps to raise potential growth in the medium run?

- The taxation of capital : a paradigm shift that favours growth
- An ambiguous policy on labour taxation. 35
- Measures targeting the labour market : seeking a better fit with the current climate
- Retirement reform
- The government is planning an important, structural reform of the retirement system
- The current and projected performance of the retirement system
- The implications for policy recommendations

Voir les documents

French Economic Prolile (mai 2019, 43 p.)

Voir aussi

Rexecode at a glance

Economic forecasting, Industrial studies, Analysis of economic policies

01/01/2017

Rexecode is a French non governmental macroeconomics research institute. The institute is devoted to the analysis of the economic situation for its members. Rexecode also participate to the economic policy debate through an expertise of reforms impacting the production system.

Created in 1957 Rexecode has two missions :

(1) to provide a global business cycle analysis and forecasts of macroeconomic trends to its members,

(2) to weight in the public debate by means of a sound expertise in the field of economic policy, especially the assessment of reforms effects on the production system.

Our staff of economists (PhD) has a proven experience in macroeconomic modeling and forecasting.

Members and clients of Coe-Rexecode are representatives of the most important French firms of the industrial and financial service sectors and the main employer’s Federations.

Rexecode delivers the following services to its members :

• Analysis of economic conditions in the major developed and emerging economies

• Forecasts for key macro variables for about 50 countries

• Global macro scenario detailed for the major developed and emerging economies

• Country macro profiles and country research on request

• Access to enriched statistical and documentary databases

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