Page d'accueil > Analyses et prévisions > Documents de travail > Le commerce mondial en 2009-2010 > Mesurer les points retournements du cycle du commerce mondial (encadré)
Mesurer les points retournements du cycle du commerce mondial (encadré)
Measuring cyclical turning point in international trade - encadré, document de travail N.15/2009
18/12/2009
Jacques
ANAS
World industrial production and world imports show an upward trend along time. In statistical terms, they are not only integrated of order one but also co-integrated. We will rather focus here on the degree of cyclical link, i.e. the co-movement. Therefore, it is necessary first to extract the trend in order to compare the deviation to trend. Several types of filters are available to extract the trend. We will use the preferred Christiano-Fitzegerald filter.
