World Trade in 2010 and 2011

Report submitted at the AIECE Autumn Genral Meeting, Brussels, 28th-29th October 2010 - N.21

08/11/2011

World trade recovered sharply in the first half of 2010, after the strong increase already observed in the course of 2009. However, most recent data show a deceleration in world trade during the summer.

Emerging countries have led the recovery of world trade since the beginning of 2009. The level of their imports stands above the pre-crisis level although they have shown some signs of moderation recently.

For developed economies, the level of imports has not yet reached the pre-crisis level. Thus, the recession has created an apparent « import gap » that is not completely closed. It raises some questions concerning the future trend of developed countries imports.

According to the Working Group assumptions, world trade will grow only by 7.3% next year in volume terms after a strong 15.5% in 2010. Due to the carry-over effects, those annual average growth rates mean that rather weak figures are expected in the second half of 2010 and in the first half of 2011, in line with global assumptions on world economy (tightening of fiscal policies, end of the effects of inventories rebuilding). World trade growth might accelerate slightly in the second half of 2011.

According to the Working Group assumptions, global imbalances would not be reduced next year. It will put an additional pressure on exchange rates.