Espace adhrent
Page d'accueil > Liens en-tête > English > European growth prospects: a synthesis of AIECE institutes' opinions

European growth prospects: a synthesis of AIECE institutes' opinions

- AIECE November 2015 general report on the European economy


The 33 European economic institutes of the AIECE network (of which Coe-Rexecode is a member) met in Brussels on November 5-6, 2015. They exchanged their views on European growth prospects, monetary policy, fiscal policy and institutional challenges.

Forecast annual GDP Growth Aiece Institutes

• AIECE institutes expect euro area GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016. Despite the gradually waning impact of low oil prices and the euro exchange rate (which are, together, deemed to account for 0.7 pp of euro area growth), investment would slightly accelerate in 2017 and thus sustain the ongoing moderate recovery. Risks to the central scenario are tilted to the downside.

• 3/4 of AIECE institutes believe that the ECB’s current monetary policy stance is appropriate for the euro area and that the ECB’s QE program is working. A majority of institutes foresee that the European QE program will be extended, on average by 8 months beyond September 2016.

• Though the euro area’s fiscal position has greatly improved since the 2009 trough, fiscal consolidation is not over yet and the continuing divergence of public debt levels is an issue. 88% of AIECE institutes do not think Greece will be able to repay its public debt without a nominal haircut.

• The EU seems to be headed towards increasing institutional tensions in the upcoming 2 years. The “Brexit” referendum is a major threat for the EU project according to 61% of AIECE institutes. Only one institute is convinced that the June 2015 Five Presidents’ report provides sufficient basis to solve these institutional challenges.


Etudes pour le débat public